John Zaring | The Rational Center: Why Trump Will Lose in a Historic Landslide!John Zaring September 18, 2019 2 Comments
I predict President Donald J. Trump is going to get his ass handed to him on November 3, 2020. Mark it down. This will be the most lopsided popular AND electoral margin loss ever.
“Period, end of story,” to quote the original, oh-so-fabulous Trump apologist, Sean Spicer.
Yes, folks, Trump actually, finally, is going to make presidential history at something: LOSING EPICALLY!
Added to the list of states Trump lost in 2016 will be Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Michigan. And, he might even lose Georgia and Texas too!
Oh wait, let’s climb out even further on that limb …
Not only will Trump get crushed, I predict that a record number of Republicans will lose their seats in the House and Senate. The Blue Wave of 2018 will become the even bigger Big Blue Wall – the only wall that Trump will ever actually finish – with Senate seats in Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado all flipping, and Montana too IF Governor Steve Bullock recognizes he won’t be president in this cycle and joins that race in time. Georgia could elect its first Democrat to the Senate since Zell Miller left office in 2005. Or maybe even two, if Dem heroes Sally Yates or Stacey Abrams enter the race.
It could happen.
Even if Alabama Republicans take back Doug Jones’ senate seat, #massacreMitch McConnell will be returned to the minority. But not for long. My final prediction is that McConnell will quickly announce his retirement, unwilling to spend his twilight years sparring with the new Majority Leader, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York.
Before my progressive friends start popping 805s, I offer up this one caveat…
The only way we Democrats can screw this up is by selecting Sen. Bernie Sanders as the party’s nominee. Do that, and we just might “feel the Bern” in an unexpected and unpleasant way.
Make no mistake, Trump will label whichever Democrat emerges a socialist. He’ll assign a nickname, and lie, lie, lie to his merry basket of deplorables, the grumpy old white people who fueled his shocking electoral victory in 2016, and for the most part, still love it every time he hauls off on the rest of us, the “coastal elites,” “fake news” media and people of color who they see as despoiling “their” America.
Sanders is the only candidate the socialist label will stick to, and ironically, the guy isn’t even a Democrat. What could go wrong?!
Other than Sanders, Democrats can nominate any of the rest – well, probably not Marianne Williamson – and a poll of polls show that IF the race were TODAY, former Vice President Joe Biden would crush Trump, so too Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose “steady as she goes” campaign models civility and substance and is gaining momentum and support by the day. Many polls also have Sen. Kamala Harris, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Beto O’Rourke also likely winners, albeit at slimmer, less dependable margins.
Okay, relax Bernie Bros, I know that these same polls also show that your hero would beat Trump, but let’s be real, polls are a snapshot in time, and I believe, after months of Trump assailing “Crazy Bernie’s” self-proclaimed socialist plans to kill private health insurance (“I wrote the damn bill!”), free college for all and student loan forgiveness, not to mention the hardened promise of higher taxes, Trump will need only one of his slimy, grimy hands to choke-out Bernie.
To be clear, I’m not arguing any of those progressive ideas are bad policy, just that they are terrible politics. Stupid, dumb, losing positions outside of the Democratic primary.
Bernie’s favorability rating has been dropping for months, so it likely won’t matter. And while Buttigieg, O’Rourke and Sen. Corey Booker all had their moments in last week’s debate on ABC, and Harris didn’t hurt her prospects (this time), debates are both everything and nothing all at once. With the speed of Trump-driven news cycles, it’s unlikely that anyone will jump in the polls. Not impossible, just unlikely. Really, really unlikely.
Warren is the only candidate truly on the rise, methodically, steady, and I suspect, when it comes down to it, it’ll be her or Uncle Joe in the finals. Bernie will stay in too long (again), but the others, especially all of those hovering around 2% (or less) in the polls, will eventually need to find a way to bow out gracefully before they do harm to themselves or the eventual nominee.
It’s baked-in that Biden is gaffe-prone – like W. Bush, the man has ALWAYS mangled the English language – but when you compare his missteps to Trump’s reckless lies, a clear difference emerges. The liability of a gaffe and the danger of blatant manipulation are just not the same folks, and we can’t repeat the mistake of false equivalency that chased Sen. Al Franken from office.
Did you notice the deafening lack of support for Kirsten Gillibrand? What goes around comes around, eh Senator?
We also shouldn’t conflate age with fitness for office, because if age was an actual issue, then we’d need to have this same conversation about everyone’s hero Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, too many senators to list, but relevantly California’s senior Sen. Diane Feinstein, or even Warren and Sanders, who are all of the same generation as Biden.
Oh, and Trump, who will NEVER live up to the oath he swore.
In Trump’s America, every day is worse than the day before. That’s why I believe his relentless public attempts to change the rules of the game, the havoc he wreaks on so many fronts, will drive scores of frustrated Americans – not only Democrats, but Independents and even some #nevertrump Republicans who recognize our country is a hot mess – to vote.
It’s also why our candidates should focus on demonstrating just how presidential they are while laying out how they’ll take us back to normalcy. That’s it. Getting nasty over how we achieve universal healthcare or solve the climate crisis is self-defeating, and while I’m not saying Dems need to give up their progressive ideals, this election is a referendum on Trump and Trump alone. It’s not a purity test.
Every single one of our candidates is a thousand times better than the malignant moron squatting in the White House. Once Trump is gone, we can debate how far forward Americans are willing to be taken.
Don’t kid yourself, 2020 is a battle for the soul of America. Democrats must win, because our unique experiment in democracy will not survive another four years of this madness.
It’s all about Trump, stupid!
John Zaring has lived with his family in the Santa Clarita Valley since 2000. He describes his politics as center-left, as in “the rational center,” and while initially a college Republican, has been a Democrat since 1992. The LA County Democratic Party named him the 37th Assembly District Democrat of the Year in 2010.